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Looks like Thursday morning

The underlying dataset that drives the wind predictions we all look at is called GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The computer modeling is run 4 times per day at 6 hour intervals starting at 0000 GMT. The model takes approximately 5 hours to run after which the data becomes available for download. That means, every six hours, I can download a new forecast and see how the future predictions are evolving. As with any forecasting, prediction becomes more accurate as the time ahead reduces.

After yesterday morning’s daily weather discussion a lot us are now aiming to leave Thursday morning. Until then the winds at this latitude are too southerly. They are predicted to turn on Thursday so it looks like a good start. Further out things do get more complicated and variable in terms of what to expect. The previously predicted elongated high is now beginning to be predicted to become more fragmented with a new high forming further south. If the weather does develop further in this direction then we could be on for a good sail all the way down. That is not yet certain. But a Thursday start looks to be on.

The main boat chore for yesterday was to have another scrape of the port hull and cleaning the scum off above the water line. We will do the starboard hull today and the props maybe tomorrow.

This evening we will have our final eat out and party perhaps at Big Mamas. We like to take it easy the night before a big crossing as this facilitates our settling into the rhythm and helps avoid sea sickness – all lessons learned from my Atlantic crossing in 2008 and reinforced since.

With our imminent leaving the Pacific Islands behind and heading to New Zealand I feel a growing sense of anticipation and excitement. I have found in our travels that staying too long in one place can make one feel stale. Arriving somewhere new brings new horizons. new experiences and new thrills. This is why we’re out here.

I’ll now go and see if the latest weather computer model is now available.

Staying put

We had another weather session ashore which, for me, ended up being more of a tech support session. I enjoy this sort of thing so it was a fun way to spend the morning.

The weather models we all downloaded in the morning only supported the wait and see strategy we’re all on. The models were predicting the high and the low previously mentioned staying put. In the afternoon I downloaded another prediction and things were now different. The low to our south east is no longer predicted to stay put and the high pressure system predicted to stall over the north west of New Zealand is now predicted to stretch out west to east. Our weekly summary from Bob McDavitt that comes out every Sunday supported the weather models exactly – without adding anything new. If this plays out it will have the effect of generating more easterly winds north of the high pressure area, ideal for getting us down to withing 250 miles of New Zealand. The downside would be that the elongated high pressure system will be associated with very light winds making the last 250 miles somewhat problematical.

My developing strategy is to sail from here as soon as the near southerlies are making their turn more to the east – maybe a little earlier. Then we sail more or less the rhumb line, perhaps a little to the west. As we head down we will of course be watching the forecasts, in particular for when and where this high pressure system moves. If, as one would expect, it shifts to the east, it will bring north to north easterly winds behind and to the west it which will take us down to Opua. There is a possibility we’ll end up becalmed for a while but I’d rather be stuck on the edge of the high pressure cell and catching the good weather when it moves as opposed to running the risk of catching the next low pressure system should we leave to late.

All this boils down to is that right now, at this point in time, I’m looking at leaving here Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. Each morning and evening this idea will be refined or completely revised. Some are now looking at leaving for Minerva Reef tomorrow which makes sense too. As we don’t like two day passages we’d rather keep going once we’ve set off so Minerva Reef is only our plan B should the weather models show something completely unpleasant ahead once we’re two days out.

Helen cooked up three meals for our passage. She has not done this before as we can normally get by being on a cat. Some people cook up all their meals in advance which makes sense if you spend your passages tipped over. This gives us something decent to eat if we end up in bumpy seas.

The only boat chore worth mentioning I did was to go up the mast for a general inspection and specifically to look for anything sharp on the spreaders that may have triggered our head sail tear. I saw nothing of concern.

At 4pm Ben and I went ashore to play a couple of hours of volleyball with some of the other cruisers and some locals. Ben went back ashore at 8pm to spend some time with some local friends he’d made. He came back around 2pm completely loaded on cava – the muddy, mildly narcotic drink the Polynesians in this neck of the Pacific are fond of.

Today I’ll go ashore for another weather session. Tomorrow we may go to the main island to top up our provisions and get a little more cash to pay off our bill here. It looks like we’ll need to scrape the underside one more time before we leave so that looks like a Tuesday job.

Weather or not

The morning weather session turned out to be quite useful. Members of 6 or 7 boats came ashore and we all sat around a long table with out laptops looking at various weather sources. There was a lot of discussion and sharing of ideas. I noticed Bert from Boree had a more up to date version of the software to view my downloaded wind/wave files and soon I was up to date seeing my wind, rain and waves in glorious technicolour. We’ve agreed to keep meeting at 10am each day although noone is individually bound to come.

The outlook for a passage to New Zealand right now is not good. A low pressure system is forecast to hang around about a 1,000 miles to the east of New Zealand with a high pressure system stalling to the west of New Zealand. Between them they squeeze some strong southerly winds and swell which would not be fun to beat through. For me, these systems are the thing to watch right now as everything is governed by them. We could be here for a while.

In the afternoon Helen and I went for a walk around Pangaimotu which was a pleasant leg stretch. At 6pm Sandra from Larabeck had agreed to play the fiddle. This was excuse enough for a number of us to come ashore and listen in. Soon we had Bert (the same one) accompanying her on a guitar from Imagine. All good fun and very memorable.

Disaster did strike yesterday in the form of running out of beer. The last of our reserves, topped up in the duty free store in Niue, are now exhausted. We’re also down to two bottles of wine. The rum is gone. We have gin but no tonic and some tequila fumes. Had we been leaving today this would have been perfect timing. Looks like we may have to go into town tomorrow to hunt down some essential provisions – tonic being the top of the list.

This morning we listened to the traffic on the Penguin net largely comprising the vessels who left here last Sunday. We know they’ve had a hard time over the last couple of days but it was great to hear things we settling out and they were mostly all past the bad weather and looking to arrive in New Zealand over the next few days. The one theme that did come through was ……. it’s cold down there.

Checked Out – Now for the Weather

Quite a lot accomplished yesterday. At 7am we were up on the deck working on the head sail. Once the sail was down on the deck I could more closely examine the tear. It was about 2 feet long and away from the sun strip. By it’s position I think it may have caught on the spreader during one of our maneuvers. That will mean a trip up there soon to sharp for any sharp edges. I decided to sew the tear then tape it over. That should be enough to get us down to New Zealand. It took about an hour of work to repair the sail and then get it hoisted and furled again. Fortunately the early morning air stayed light enough for us to complete this work.

At 9am it was all aboard the water taxi to do our checking out and final (?) provisioning. First stop was immigration. This went smoothly. Immigration is opposite an excellent bakery (I may have mentioned this before) so we all sampled sausage rolls and doughnuts.

We then walked to the fruit and veg market and picked up some fresh food. We’re currently provisioning for two weeks with the last few days being tinned stuff. If we leave now we’ll have fresh food all the way. If we leave in a few days the tins will come out. If we leave later we’ll being reprovisioning.

We then blew the next few minutes walking through the center of town stopping at a cafe for some very tasty samosas and coffee. With the day heating up (another rare sunny day here) it was nice to sit somewhere air conditioned while we passed a few minutes. Overall we were aiming for the 1pm water taxi back so we didn’t want to rush.

Next we took a taxi to the port authority office where we cleared out there. Again we suffered (as in the Galapagos) from overstated tonnage on our ships documentation as this was the basis of our fee for clearance. We must fix this on our next papers renewal. Not too far away was the customs shed. There was no-one there so we had to find a customs officer in the wharf to clear us out. The guy we found was not overly pleased I had not checked into Nuku’alofa but did the paperwork anyway after making his protest for our failed adherence to full formalities. Our final bit of beaurocracy was a visit to another customs office back in the port authority building where we obtained our paperwork for duty free fuel. Having been delayed by having to find a customs officer earlier we just made it before they closed for lunch. Phew.

Another taxi ride, this time to a supermarket to pick up the rest of our provisions. This being done our final taxi ride of the day was back to the dock with a detour by the palace (Tonga is a monarchy) to have a teeny bit of sight seeing.

The 1pm water taxi ended up leaving 20 minutes late so by the time we were back on Dignity it was time to set off to fuel up at our prebooked 2pm slot. Soon we were back in the dock area. Another cat, “Two if by Sea”, was on the dock shifting forward to make room so we waited for them to complete their maneuvering before heading in. With the wind blowing off the dock and the rocky wall of the inner dock off our starboard beam we needed to be reasonably quick. Once we were tied up to the dock we discover the fuel line would reach neither of our stern fuel openings so we had to untie, reverse out, switch the fenders and lines over then reverse back onto the dock. Having done this the fuel line reached our starboard filler which, fortunately, was the one that needed the most fuel. To fill the port tank we had to fill jerry cans and bring them over and siphon the fuel out. We were lent a siphon with a jigger by the other boat which saved me tasting diesel.

Once we had fueled up I had to run to the cash machine to get enough cash to pay for the fuel and to pay off our tab at Big Mamas. As soon as I returned and paid up we were off so as the next vessel waiting to fuel could come in and do so.

It was nearly 4pm by the time we dropped the hook more or less at the same spot as before. At 4:30pm we’d been invited over to Leu Cat with the Sea Mists where David offered Ben and Ian cigars. The cigars were open for all but none of the rest of us were up to them. We were all made Manhattan’s which are part of David’s daily ritual which he has with his cigar.

Back on the boat we finally relaxed watching a few TV shows. We’re still working our way through Prison Break – now in season 2 which is not so good but we’re soldiering on. More weather watching too. The GRIBs are not looking promising for a start south any time soon. The general advice is to wait for a ‘Big Fat High’ to pass which will bring steady trades behind it for approximately 5 days. No BFH’s are on the horizon and we have a good period of southerlies foretasted ahead of us. Our current strategy is to wait here until a BFH shows and set sail hoping that the trades will fall in behind it. If, after two days, they don’t we’ll stop in Minerva Reef 240 miles out.

Because weather watching is what we’re all doing here I’ve organized a daily morning meet up at Big Mama’s where we can pool our respected thoughts and perspectives on the most recent forecasts. If nothing else it’s something to do each day. Given the current picture we could be here for a while. At best we will learn new perspectives and sources of information from each other which can only enhance the decision making process. If we get pinned here for too long we may adjust our strategy and go for Minerva Reef and wait there. On the upside it knocks over 200nm and a couple of days off our final transit to New Zealand making it easier to shoot for a weather window. On the downside it’s a two day passage (which we don’t like) and, if we do get trades, it takes five degrees off our course which will make it closer and more bumpy for us. We’ll see.

Helen is almost finished her two year perspective. She’s been at it for a while now. She’s been cursing and swearing just now because she lost a paragraph while moving it around and now has remember and rewrite it.

Getting Ready

Thursday was a work day. We have a possibly tough crossing ahead of us so it’s necessary to check the boat all over and make things good. It was a little too windy and wet to bring the sail down but a lot else was accomplished. Most the checks went fine. I wasn’t happy with the bearing on my steering gear so I dismantled the rudder posts and greased them up. Batteries, sale cars and shrouds look ok. We washed out the bilges and tested the pumps. All good.

In the evening we went ashore to Big Mamas for beers and food with Sea Mist and Leu Cat – we all had a good time.

Today we’re going to clear out. We’ll do all our formalities, load up with fuel and provision for the trip. We’ll also try to get the head sail fixed. Then we’ll be set to go whenever the opportunity arises. I’m currently loading GRIBs 3 to 4 times a day to watch the evolving weather models. It’s a complex picture but it does look like an opening will arrive soon. On this one we could well start with some rare north westerlies followed by a calm and variable patch followed by a resumption of the trades. A decision will be made each day.