Highs and Lows

With winds down into the teens the bay we’re in was beginning to calm down but was still a little choppy when we left to go ashore. Feelings were high as the forecast was still showing a good window for departure on Thursday/Friday. We dinghied over to Passages, tied/locked the boat and transferred our last jerry can of fuel into the dinghies tank.

With another cruiser the five of us packed into John and Pam’s car and took the road south to Whangarei. Along the way we could see lowlands flooded by the recent rains but fortunately the road was open. In late January, I learned, the road had been closed for three days after an even heavier storm.

The day was very busy but we got everything done we needed to including a trip back to Norsand where we met the Sea Misters and Tahinas. It was late afternoon by the time we returned. And what a transformation from the morning/previous few days. The sun was out and the bay calm. We lugged everything from the car to the dinghy and took it back to Dignity. I passed everything up to Helen and left her to pack. I returned to the dock to help John go and collect his dinghy which was still over by the yard. It was much easier to tow than to row and I was glad to help.

Next, John took me to Pahia so he could pick up some beer (I did too) and I could fill my two jerry cans. I was shocked at the price not realizing it would be more expensive to fill two cans than the tank of the car we had all those months.

I was able to get the full cans back to the boat, help Helen put the dodger back on and then get back ashore just in time for the 6pm meet up I’d organized with cruisers willing to help run a radio net for the trip up. We shared a few beers in the cool evening air before having our brief discussion. We’ve agreed to run a simple position check in once in the morning and once in the evening 8am/8pm with the intent on providing a communication safety net for anyone getting into trouble. I stayed a while longer with the Delos boys catching up over a few more beers.

With almost everything done we need to get done to leave and with a similar sense from everyone else I was feeling pretty good.

Back on the boat almost the first thing I did was to pull down a new set of weather data to examine the evolving weather situation. I toggled between the latest forecast and the mornings data a few times just to be sure of what I was really seeing. The winds forecasted for mid passage have changed quite considerably. It’s looking like a fantastic trip for the motor boats as it’s light air now for days. Great for the motor boat guys but pretty lousy for us.

This was a bit of a blow to the day’s euphoria but it didn’t quite crush our spirits as we were marveling at the simplicity of the lack of wind and a boat that wasn’t being continuously tossed around. The prospect of a good nights sleep without alarms going off all night had a strong appeal.

I have looked at the weather forecast again this morning. I’m not feeling overjoyed. The weather patterns are controlled by what goes on in the upper atmosphere which tends to push things eastwards. Normally the highs and lows, while dancing around, generally make their way from Australia out over/around NZ and off to the east. A huge high is sitting around 158W. It’s been there a while is the forecasts have it stationary out for the next week. The low pressure system that brought all the recent nasty weekend weather is forecast to patrol the Tasman sea.  North of the area between this high and low the winds are light and variable.  That’s exactly where we want to sail.

The weekly McDavitt missive that came out a day late this week offers little comfort. The section providing direct comment our situation reads :

WHEN TO DEPART NZ FOR FIJI/TONGA?

Around the middle of the week there is a gap of lighter winds between the two lows-maybe OK for motoring north but not for sailing. From Thu to Sat, the showery NW flow ahead of L2’s trough will probably put off most cruising sailors.  There is likely to be some assistance with a SW to SE wind change after that trough on late Sunday, but this may be interrupted by a period of light winds in a weak ridge.  SO there appears to be NO great sailing voyages appearing at this stage.

One would think that at this stage it’s best to call off the plans for this week and get the reading book out.  Perhaps.  Probably.  But it’s never that easy.  We watch.  We wait.  We remain ready to go.  As Bob likes to say “Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos” which basically means things could change.  Who, in fact, has ever seen a forecast that is right?

Pwooof.  That’s me blowing the dust of the cover.

Footnote: More on the weather.  The current forecasts are showing all the signs of being in a particularly ill conditioned state.  Meaning, that small changes in the input parameters can lead to large changes in the model output.  My view is supported by the large change in model outputs that we saw occur yesterday, some of Bob’s comments which related to model inconsistency and comments from a local cruiser who’s been monitoring the weather here for 15 years.  It all supports the notion that right now we’re into making day to day decisions on when to leave.  It could be this week.  It might not.