Have I been spending too long looking into the tea leaves? I’ll spout my weather musings, as usual, at the end of the blog so you tell me then. And if you get the pop-culture reference in the blog title I can only say “sorry.”
Tuesday it was sort of back to normal in a way. I managed a fairly typical 2 hour run to drop off trash and pick up a package from the chandlers. Typical in that it really should have taken 10 minutes but I kept bumping into folks and “hello” leads to “bloody weather” and then time flies. With a reasonable part of the day left we tackled a few important issues. Two were leaks made apparent during the recent deluge. Gone now is the leak via the mount on the forward starboard shower hatch. Gone now is the leak from the handles to the stern locker hatches, the starboard one in particular being, I believe, the root cause of the bilge alarms last weekend. Last job was to mount the man overboard pole securing it to the horse shoe float. That way, if someone goes overboard we can throw it in the water. The swimmer can see the flag/pole and find the float. Those left aboard can see the flag/pole and find the swimmer.
In the evening was a pot luck dinner for the fleet of cruisers stuck in Opua. We ended up sat at a table with the Imagines and Callypsos joined later by John from Passages. All good company. We left quite late.
So. The bloody weather.
The model forecasts available yesterday provided no inspiration at all. The huge high pressure system well to the east of us seemed immovable and creating a traffic jam of systems out our way. The Delos boys are stir crazy and have a notion to leave today and head east before heading north. A bold and brave move in my opinion but I can understand the move.
Knowing the models to be in a volatile state demands close attention to how the solutions are evolving. And this morning I see a glimpse. Perhaps a chance to leave on Friday. Low pressure systems are doing the tango south and west of us. One of them is now looking to take and hold a position just off the west coast on NZ bringing northwesterly winds Friday afternoon followed by westerlies. If we left then we would get a day and a half of good sailing before encountering a line of high pressure spots with confused and light winds. This would require careful threading through and maybe a little motoring. Beyond this we would be into south easterly flows which would put us back into decent sailing conditions. The final obstacle would be a low pressure system over Tonga way which could cause a combination of opportunities or problems depending on your destination and how it evolves. My overall synopsis is that its looking good for those heading to New Caledonia, perhaps a good chance for those Fiji bound and a bit chancy for those bound for Tonga.
In about 3 hours we get the next model output. I’ll shake the cup and read the tea leaves again then.
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