Looks like Thursday morning

The underlying dataset that drives the wind predictions we all look at is called GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The computer modeling is run 4 times per day at 6 hour intervals starting at 0000 GMT. The model takes approximately 5 hours to run after which the data becomes available for download. That means, every six hours, I can download a new forecast and see how the future predictions are evolving. As with any forecasting, prediction becomes more accurate as the time ahead reduces.

After yesterday morning’s daily weather discussion a lot us are now aiming to leave Thursday morning. Until then the winds at this latitude are too southerly. They are predicted to turn on Thursday so it looks like a good start. Further out things do get more complicated and variable in terms of what to expect. The previously predicted elongated high is now beginning to be predicted to become more fragmented with a new high forming further south. If the weather does develop further in this direction then we could be on for a good sail all the way down. That is not yet certain. But a Thursday start looks to be on.

The main boat chore for yesterday was to have another scrape of the port hull and cleaning the scum off above the water line. We will do the starboard hull today and the props maybe tomorrow.

This evening we will have our final eat out and party perhaps at Big Mamas. We like to take it easy the night before a big crossing as this facilitates our settling into the rhythm and helps avoid sea sickness – all lessons learned from my Atlantic crossing in 2008 and reinforced since.

With our imminent leaving the Pacific Islands behind and heading to New Zealand I feel a growing sense of anticipation and excitement. I have found in our travels that staying too long in one place can make one feel stale. Arriving somewhere new brings new horizons. new experiences and new thrills. This is why we’re out here.

I’ll now go and see if the latest weather computer model is now available.