Day 4 was very much a recovery day, one where all the crews spirits were lifted. The pounding northwesterlies had shifted to the south and the seas were beginning to subside. Everyone woke up feeling better than on any previous day.
A morning analysis of the coming weather using more detailed forecast downloads revealed more of what was ahead of us. A convergence zone is forming 2-300 miles to our north. North of the zone the winds are messy, often from the north accompanied by precipitation. Not what we’d like to sail through. South of the zone strong southeasterlies are looking to form. Within the zone we can expect heavy rain, thunderstorms and unpredictable winds. A (relatively) low pressure system is forecast to traverse the zone from NW to NE leaving in it’s wake a large extension of the aforementioned southeasterlies. The low pressure systems path/timing is likely to be unpredictable but the presence, position and development of the convergence zone itself is more predictable.
Two choices offered themselves. The first was to push on through and try and get through the zone before the low pressure system really stirs things up then take our chances on the north side which may end up being miserable and lots of motoring. The second choice was to slow right down waiting to pickup the southerly side of the low as it passes and whip around on the west side of it in the developing southeasterlies. The second choice offers the possibility of days of great sailing but at the cost of lost time which in turn translates into a greater gamble on uncertain future weather.
Although it was my decision to make, the crew fully supported the decision to slow down and take it easy. We lowered the main and used the jib only throughout the day and night, even when our boat speed dropped to 2-3 knots. This helped make the day and allowed everyone to recover from the bashing we’d had previously. We ran the genset and made hot water and all had a hot shower. We had the fishing lure out for most of the day but caught nothing. I even buried my head under our bunk to see if I could do anything further with our shaft seal leak which continues to drip away triggering the bilge alarm every hour or so. Our bilge pump goes off with only a small amount of water in the bottom of the bilge so this is more of an annoyance than a threat. My repairs initially succeeded in increasing the drip rate but later I managed to get it back to where it was. For now, I’ll leave it alone. I’m fairly committed now to doing the replacement with the new seal on a beach in Fiji.
I’ve organized a radio net for this wave of boats heading north to Fiji and it runs at 8 in the morning and 8 in the evening. Last night we listened in to see if any one had also adopted the same strategy as us. The Jacksters have abandoned their plans to head for Minerva Reef but apart from that noone else seems to have slowed down. We were in the middle of the pack and now expect to be near the back. Over the few days we’ll learn if the decision was the right one for us. At the moment we’re suffering perhaps from slowing down too early as we’ve been caught by some light winds that I knew were behind us. So we’re now motoring. Once I have this mornings forecasts and know more about the system north of us I can decide what to do next. We have no real need to make a lot of progress just yet so we have options. For now I have adjusted our course to the north north west to avoid the southern reach of the low pressure system per yesterday evenings forecast.
Temperatures have been gradually increasing. The sea temperature is now above 80F. The air temperature has been as high as 26F and not below 20F. (Sorry for the mixed scales). With the wind behind us the 20F feels a lot colder so we still have to wrap up. It’s all going in the right direction.
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