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On Sunday we got to say goodbye to some friends and hello to friends we’ve recently shared last and final farewells.
The goodbyes went to Imagine, Passages and Boree who were among a number of boats who made the decision to head north yesterday. When I’d looked at my sources of weather information all I saw was two days of motoring followed by winds on the nose. The problem is there is more than one source for the weather and certainly more than one brain looking and interpreting them. We all have different needs, boats and preferences and all this adds up to a decision to stay or go. A bit of the radio chatter as the boats left made it sound like they were riding off into a rough ride. I hope, for their sake, they’re not. But sooner or later we all go.
Paul made his planned return to Auckland. We walked with him to the bus stop and waited with him. Once he’d left we wandered around the hilltop roads and made our way down to the coast path that connects Pahia to Opua. We soon ran into David and Marian from Kilkea and stopped to chat with them. Sooner after that we ran into the Blue Penguins who we’d recently said our final, final last goodbyes to as they were headed to New Caledonia. They were going our way so we walked with them back to Opua. Ben, like me, is fascinated with the whole mentality of the departure decision and wants to write something up on it.
In the evening we had David and Katie from Troutbridge, Kay and Fergus from Paleides (another recent last, final, never again farewell) and Mike and Ann from Callisto over for curry and a few drops of wine. It ended up being a late one for all and, as ever, a good time was had by all. And guess what the recurring theme was last night.
The weather.
So what’s it looking like for us now.
The Thursday/Friday opportunity still stands and is now favouring a Thursday afternoon departure. There’s a trough/front coming over and we simply take off right behind it where we can expect northwesterlies or even westerly winds for a few days. I’ve morbidly played around with a possible departure tomorrow (Tuesday) riding the northeasterlies up to the north of New Zealand and then sail the following northerlies eastward. We’d then have to take the coming front out at sea. I would probably lose favours with the Admiral if I chose that path.
Fiji-itus should be a recognized disease. Sooner or later the prospect of another day in Opua basin crushes the spirit and the pull of the islands overcomes every other need of mind and body. I suspect we saw an outbreak yesterday. But I can feel it in my fingers (they’re cold). I may be going down with it too.
by steve, on May 6th, 2011 ( Blue Penguin, Boree, Callisto, Curious, Imagine, New Zealand, Paleides, Passages, True Companions) Another forecast. Another decision. Our general plan of leaving NZ is simply to get out of Dodge when we can, make some distance north and east then take each day as it comes. Even if we have to sit there for a day or two. As long as it’s safe to do so.
So here’s today’s local forecast.
Squall warning. Waves may rise rapidly during squalls. Friday: Northeast 20 knots rising to 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning. Changing northwest 20 knots this afternoon, then easing to 15 knots this evening and to 10 knots tonight. Squalls of 45 knots possible until evening. Moderate sea becoming rough for a time this morning, then becoming slight this evening. Poor visibility in rain, with some heavy and thundery falls until evening.
If we were out at sea and had no choice and this came down on us we could deal with it. We wouldn’t like it but we’ve done it before. Does it make sense to leave land with this happening? Easy answer. No. In all good conscience I cannot set sail into possibly dangerous weather while we are close to shore.
So we probably won’t leave today. We’ve got to let this one pass. We had planned to fuel up and check out early morning. I will at least delay this until we get a longer read on today’s weather but as I said, chances are we won’t leave today.
Looking out to tomorrow it’s not looking so good either. The low pressure system to our SW is now projected to come a little further north than yesterday’s forecasts were suggesting. This puts a more northerly component into the winds we can expect over the next couple of days. We would have to sail extremely close to the wind to make some decent northing. Yesterday the seas were flat. We know this from the folks who motored up from anchorages on the coast. I don’t mind sailing close hauled on flat seas but not those kicked up by squally weather. So, if tomorrow’s winds remain just west of north (as they are currently predicted to be) tomorrow won’t look good either.
But this is all on a hair trigger which is this low to the SW. If it stays a little further to the south that is all we need to kick us up northwards. So now it’s a waiting game.
That was the weather. Now the news. I’ll summarize.
Customs were notified of our probable departure today. Paul arrived. We borrowed a car from Phil and drove to Opua for lunch and fresh food collection. In the evening we went ashore for dinner at the yacht club. A few more of the puddle jumpers have arrived. Two new comers to Opua were Callisto and Boree. Nice to see them. Everyone was talking about the weather of course and possible plans for leaving. There were many opinions and all were good to listen to. Also there were Imagine, Passages, Paleides, True Companions, Blue Penguin, Avante, Curious and many others. I totally violated my no drinking night before passage rule. It doesn’t seem to have mattered.
by steve, on May 5th, 2011 ( Imagine, New Zealand) We’re still on for departure tomorrow.
Yesterday we did have plans to go sailing but given the latest reversal in the weather we stayed put and did some final, final prep. A brief bullet list of what we did :
- Laundry
- Vasalined dodger/sail bag zips
- Inspected all shackes and cable ties (preventing pins unwinding)
- Inspected and marked shrouds (to detect possible unwind of screws)
- Filed down rough edges on old main halyard (now the topping lift) clamp
- Lubricated sail cars
- Tested the electrical propulsion (chargers, fans, etc.) All ok.
- Organized car for final, final provisioning today.
- Sealed stern rail.
- Continued (compulsive) internal reorganization.
- Cooked additional food for trip.
I spent a couple of hours aboard Imagine in the morning helping out Stuart while he performed some work atop the mast. It was nice to chat to Sheila while we provided support to Stuart. He was changing bulbs on his anchor / tricolour lights and found some corrosion in the wires which needed fixing.
There really isn’t a great deal more to be done today. We will surely think of a few things but generally we should get a chance to relax. We will do one final supermarket pass today for fresh veg.
Based on the very latest forecast we’re aiming to refuel and check out of NZ tomorrow morning with a view to set sail around midday. We may have to motor up the bay before the winds turn but that’s ok as we need to get into clear water to run the water maker and top up before we leave. The bay here is still brown from the run off from the recent deluge. Not the sort of place I want to run the water maker.
 Finally, we received some form of entertainment yesterday watching a small yacht being salvaged. As a sober reminder of the conditions we experienced last weekend, this smaller vessel had been overwhelmed by the conditions and had sunk with just the top of it’s mast showing. A floating crane was used to bring it to the surface where a strong pump was used to pull the water out of the insides and float it.
Have I been spending too long looking into the tea leaves? I’ll spout my weather musings, as usual, at the end of the blog so you tell me then. And if you get the pop-culture reference in the blog title I can only say “sorry.”
Tuesday it was sort of back to normal in a way. I managed a fairly typical 2 hour run to drop off trash and pick up a package from the chandlers. Typical in that it really should have taken 10 minutes but I kept bumping into folks and “hello” leads to “bloody weather” and then time flies. With a reasonable part of the day left we tackled a few important issues. Two were leaks made apparent during the recent deluge. Gone now is the leak via the mount on the forward starboard shower hatch. Gone now is the leak from the handles to the stern locker hatches, the starboard one in particular being, I believe, the root cause of the bilge alarms last weekend. Last job was to mount the man overboard pole securing it to the horse shoe float. That way, if someone goes overboard we can throw it in the water. The swimmer can see the flag/pole and find the float. Those left aboard can see the flag/pole and find the swimmer.
In the evening was a pot luck dinner for the fleet of cruisers stuck in Opua. We ended up sat at a table with the Imagines and Callypsos joined later by John from Passages. All good company. We left quite late.
So. The bloody weather.
The model forecasts available yesterday provided no inspiration at all. The huge high pressure system well to the east of us seemed immovable and creating a traffic jam of systems out our way. The Delos boys are stir crazy and have a notion to leave today and head east before heading north. A bold and brave move in my opinion but I can understand the move.
Knowing the models to be in a volatile state demands close attention to how the solutions are evolving. And this morning I see a glimpse. Perhaps a chance to leave on Friday. Low pressure systems are doing the tango south and west of us. One of them is now looking to take and hold a position just off the west coast on NZ bringing northwesterly winds Friday afternoon followed by westerlies. If we left then we would get a day and a half of good sailing before encountering a line of high pressure spots with confused and light winds. This would require careful threading through and maybe a little motoring. Beyond this we would be into south easterly flows which would put us back into decent sailing conditions. The final obstacle would be a low pressure system over Tonga way which could cause a combination of opportunities or problems depending on your destination and how it evolves. My overall synopsis is that its looking good for those heading to New Caledonia, perhaps a good chance for those Fiji bound and a bit chancy for those bound for Tonga.
In about 3 hours we get the next model output. I’ll shake the cup and read the tea leaves again then.
With winds down into the teens the bay we’re in was beginning to calm down but was still a little choppy when we left to go ashore. Feelings were high as the forecast was still showing a good window for departure on Thursday/Friday. We dinghied over to Passages, tied/locked the boat and transferred our last jerry can of fuel into the dinghies tank.
With another cruiser the five of us packed into John and Pam’s car and took the road south to Whangarei. Along the way we could see lowlands flooded by the recent rains but fortunately the road was open. In late January, I learned, the road had been closed for three days after an even heavier storm.
The day was very busy but we got everything done we needed to including a trip back to Norsand where we met the Sea Misters and Tahinas. It was late afternoon by the time we returned. And what a transformation from the morning/previous few days. The sun was out and the bay calm. We lugged everything from the car to the dinghy and took it back to Dignity. I passed everything up to Helen and left her to pack. I returned to the dock to help John go and collect his dinghy which was still over by the yard. It was much easier to tow than to row and I was glad to help.
Next, John took me to Pahia so he could pick up some beer (I did too) and I could fill my two jerry cans. I was shocked at the price not realizing it would be more expensive to fill two cans than the tank of the car we had all those months.
I was able to get the full cans back to the boat, help Helen put the dodger back on and then get back ashore just in time for the 6pm meet up I’d organized with cruisers willing to help run a radio net for the trip up. We shared a few beers in the cool evening air before having our brief discussion. We’ve agreed to run a simple position check in once in the morning and once in the evening 8am/8pm with the intent on providing a communication safety net for anyone getting into trouble. I stayed a while longer with the Delos boys catching up over a few more beers.
With almost everything done we need to get done to leave and with a similar sense from everyone else I was feeling pretty good.
Back on the boat almost the first thing I did was to pull down a new set of weather data to examine the evolving weather situation. I toggled between the latest forecast and the mornings data a few times just to be sure of what I was really seeing. The winds forecasted for mid passage have changed quite considerably. It’s looking like a fantastic trip for the motor boats as it’s light air now for days. Great for the motor boat guys but pretty lousy for us.
This was a bit of a blow to the day’s euphoria but it didn’t quite crush our spirits as we were marveling at the simplicity of the lack of wind and a boat that wasn’t being continuously tossed around. The prospect of a good nights sleep without alarms going off all night had a strong appeal.
I have looked at the weather forecast again this morning. I’m not feeling overjoyed. The weather patterns are controlled by what goes on in the upper atmosphere which tends to push things eastwards. Normally the highs and lows, while dancing around, generally make their way from Australia out over/around NZ and off to the east. A huge high is sitting around 158W. It’s been there a while is the forecasts have it stationary out for the next week. The low pressure system that brought all the recent nasty weekend weather is forecast to patrol the Tasman sea. North of the area between this high and low the winds are light and variable. That’s exactly where we want to sail.
The weekly McDavitt missive that came out a day late this week offers little comfort. The section providing direct comment our situation reads :
WHEN TO DEPART NZ FOR FIJI/TONGA?
Around the middle of the week there is a gap of lighter winds between the two lows-maybe OK for motoring north but not for sailing. From Thu to Sat, the showery NW flow ahead of L2’s trough will probably put off most cruising sailors. There is likely to be some assistance with a SW to SE wind change after that trough on late Sunday, but this may be interrupted by a period of light winds in a weak ridge. SO there appears to be NO great sailing voyages appearing at this stage.
One would think that at this stage it’s best to call off the plans for this week and get the reading book out. Perhaps. Probably. But it’s never that easy. We watch. We wait. We remain ready to go. As Bob likes to say “Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos” which basically means things could change. Who, in fact, has ever seen a forecast that is right?
Pwooof. That’s me blowing the dust of the cover.
Footnote: More on the weather. The current forecasts are showing all the signs of being in a particularly ill conditioned state. Meaning, that small changes in the input parameters can lead to large changes in the model output. My view is supported by the large change in model outputs that we saw occur yesterday, some of Bob’s comments which related to model inconsistency and comments from a local cruiser who’s been monitoring the weather here for 15 years. It all supports the notion that right now we’re into making day to day decisions on when to leave. It could be this week. It might not.
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