Another forecast. Another decision. Our general plan of leaving NZ is simply to get out of Dodge when we can, make some distance north and east then take each day as it comes. Even if we have to sit there for a day or two. As long as it’s safe to do so.
So here’s today’s local forecast.
Squall warning. Waves may rise rapidly during squalls. Friday: Northeast 20 knots rising to 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning. Changing northwest 20 knots this afternoon, then easing to 15 knots this evening and to 10 knots tonight. Squalls of 45 knots possible until evening. Moderate sea becoming rough for a time this morning, then becoming slight this evening. Poor visibility in rain, with some heavy and thundery falls until evening.
If we were out at sea and had no choice and this came down on us we could deal with it. We wouldn’t like it but we’ve done it before. Does it make sense to leave land with this happening? Easy answer. No. In all good conscience I cannot set sail into possibly dangerous weather while we are close to shore.
So we probably won’t leave today. We’ve got to let this one pass. We had planned to fuel up and check out early morning. I will at least delay this until we get a longer read on today’s weather but as I said, chances are we won’t leave today.
Looking out to tomorrow it’s not looking so good either. The low pressure system to our SW is now projected to come a little further north than yesterday’s forecasts were suggesting. This puts a more northerly component into the winds we can expect over the next couple of days. We would have to sail extremely close to the wind to make some decent northing. Yesterday the seas were flat. We know this from the folks who motored up from anchorages on the coast. I don’t mind sailing close hauled on flat seas but not those kicked up by squally weather. So, if tomorrow’s winds remain just west of north (as they are currently predicted to be) tomorrow won’t look good either.
But this is all on a hair trigger which is this low to the SW. If it stays a little further to the south that is all we need to kick us up northwards. So now it’s a waiting game.
That was the weather. Now the news. I’ll summarize.
Customs were notified of our probable departure today. Paul arrived. We borrowed a car from Phil and drove to Opua for lunch and fresh food collection. In the evening we went ashore for dinner at the yacht club. A few more of the puddle jumpers have arrived. Two new comers to Opua were Callisto and Boree. Nice to see them. Everyone was talking about the weather of course and possible plans for leaving. There were many opinions and all were good to listen to. Also there were Imagine, Passages, Paleides, True Companions, Blue Penguin, Avante, Curious and many others. I totally violated my no drinking night before passage rule. It doesn’t seem to have mattered.
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