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Still here

by steve, on May 7th, 2011 (New Zealand)

We didn’t leave yesterday.  What a bummer.  I feel it was the right decision but I can’t be sure.  The organized fleet of boats left yesterday but most of our puddle jumper friends, including those down in Whangarei, opted to stay put.  We hope for their sake we were wrong.  The threatened squalls never materialized and hence the threatened high seas didn’t really materialize either.  However, the boats heading out reported light northerly winds.  Many were motoring which is not too unusual this close to land.  The problem is that you can still pick your weather sources and find a forecast less unfavourable than others.  It’s dangerous to let ‘letsgetoutofhereitis’ take hold.

The problem is I don’t see anything else coming along just yet.  Some say Sunday is the day to go.  I don’t see it.  Too much light air to the north afterwards.  Don’t mind that if the seas are down but they won’t be.  There’s a system predicted to come over the area next Wednesday.  Perhaps behind that.

We discussed options with our crew Paul.  He is welcome to stay but has the option to go back to Auckland for a while.  It’s not easy as the situation is far from clear and we’re still in a day to day decision making mode.  Chances are today we’ll just go out sailing in the bay to give Paul some experience with the boat and get us out of the brown soupy water we’re in so we can make water.

Not a lot happened yesterday.  Paul and I went ashore for a while to do the 5 min Opua full tour.  We played some cards in the afternoon.  Paul was able to do some work.  We watched the first part of a Shackleton documentary/movie in the evening.

Category: New Zealand | Here is my comment

Leaving NZ?

by steve, on May 6th, 2011 (Blue Penguin, Boree, Callisto, Curious, Imagine, New Zealand, Paleides, Passages, True Companions)

Another forecast. Another decision. Our general plan of leaving NZ is simply to get out of Dodge when we can, make some distance north and east then take each day as it comes. Even if we have to sit there for a day or two. As long as it’s safe to do so.

So here’s today’s local forecast.

Squall warning. Waves may rise rapidly during squalls. Friday: Northeast 20 knots rising to 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning. Changing northwest 20 knots this afternoon, then easing to 15 knots this evening and to 10 knots tonight. Squalls of 45 knots possible until evening. Moderate sea becoming rough for a time this morning, then becoming slight this evening. Poor visibility in rain, with some heavy and thundery falls until evening.

If we were out at sea and had no choice and this came down on us we could deal with it.  We wouldn’t like it but we’ve done it before.  Does it make sense to leave land with this happening?  Easy answer.  No.  In all good conscience I cannot set sail into possibly dangerous weather while we are close to shore.

So we probably won’t leave today.  We’ve got to let this one pass.  We had planned to fuel up and check out early morning.  I will at least delay this until we get a longer read on today’s weather but as I said, chances are we won’t leave today.

Looking out to tomorrow it’s not looking so good either.  The low pressure system to our SW is now projected to come a little further north than yesterday’s forecasts were suggesting.  This puts a more northerly component into the winds we can expect over the next couple of days.  We would have to sail extremely close to the wind to make some decent northing.  Yesterday the seas were flat.  We know this from the folks who motored up from anchorages on the coast.  I don’t mind sailing close hauled on flat seas but not those kicked up by squally weather.  So, if tomorrow’s winds remain just west of north (as they are currently predicted to be) tomorrow won’t look good either.

But this is all on a hair trigger which is this low to the SW.  If it stays a little further to the south that is all we need to kick us up northwards.  So now it’s a waiting game.

That was the weather.  Now the news.  I’ll summarize.

Customs were notified of our probable departure today.  Paul arrived.  We borrowed a car from Phil and drove to Opua for lunch and fresh food collection.  In the evening we went ashore for dinner at the yacht club.  A few more of the puddle jumpers have arrived.  Two new comers to Opua were Callisto and Boree.  Nice to see them.  Everyone was talking about the weather of course and possible plans for leaving.  There were many opinions and all were good to listen to.  Also there were Imagine, Passages, Paleides, True Companions, Blue Penguin, Avante, Curious and many others.  I totally violated my no drinking night before passage rule.  It doesn’t seem to have mattered.

 

Category: Blue Penguin, Boree, Callisto, Curious, Imagine, New Zealand, Paleides, Passages, True Companions | Here is my comment

The countdown counts down

by steve, on May 5th, 2011 (Imagine, New Zealand)

We’re still on for departure tomorrow.

Yesterday we did have plans to go sailing but given the latest reversal in the weather we stayed put and did some final, final prep.  A brief bullet list of what we did :

  • Laundry
  • Vasalined dodger/sail bag zips
  • Inspected all shackes and cable ties (preventing pins unwinding)
  • Inspected and marked shrouds (to detect possible unwind of screws)
  • Filed down rough edges on old main halyard (now the topping lift) clamp
  • Lubricated sail cars
  • Tested the electrical propulsion (chargers, fans, etc.)  All ok.
  • Organized car for final, final provisioning today.
  • Sealed stern rail.
  • Continued (compulsive) internal reorganization.
  • Cooked additional food for trip.

I spent a couple of hours aboard Imagine in the morning helping out Stuart while he performed some work atop the mast.  It was nice to chat to Sheila while we provided support to Stuart.  He was changing bulbs on his anchor / tricolour lights and found some corrosion in the wires which needed fixing.

There really isn’t a great deal more to be done today.  We will surely think of a few things but generally we should get a chance to relax.  We will do one final supermarket pass today for fresh veg.

Based on the very latest forecast we’re aiming to refuel and check out of NZ tomorrow morning with a view to set sail around midday.  We may have to motor up the bay before the winds turn but that’s ok as we need to get into clear water to run the water maker and top up before we leave.  The bay here is still brown from the run off from the recent deluge.  Not the sort of place I want to run the water maker.

Finally, we received some form of entertainment yesterday watching a small yacht being salvaged.  As a sober reminder of the conditions we experienced last weekend, this smaller vessel had been overwhelmed by the conditions and had sunk with just the top of it’s mast showing.  A floating crane was used to bring it to the surface where a strong pump was used to pull the water out of the insides and float it.

Category: Imagine, New Zealand | Here is my comment

More on the weather

by steve, on May 4th, 2011 (New Zealand)

Let’s face it.  At times like this you can’t talk or hear enough about the weather can you?

Latest forecast is in.  Decision stands to go Friday or Saturday.  Crew arriving tomorrow.  The sail up to Fiji is likely to be ‘technical’ in that we’ll have quite a few changes in wind direction/strength to deal with.  No staying on one tack for a week.

Growing sense of anticipation and excitement around the anchorage.

Category: New Zealand | One reader has left a comment, here is mine

Friday, Friday

by steve, on May 4th, 2011 (Callypso, Delos, Imagine, New Zealand, Passages)

Have I been spending too long looking into the tea leaves?  I’ll spout my weather musings, as usual, at the end of the blog so you tell me then.  And if you get the pop-culture reference in the blog title I can only say “sorry.”

Tuesday it was sort of back to normal in a way.  I managed a fairly typical 2 hour run to drop off trash and pick up a package from the chandlers.  Typical in that it really should have taken 10 minutes but I kept bumping into folks and “hello” leads to “bloody weather” and then time flies.  With a reasonable part of the day left we tackled a few important issues.  Two were leaks made apparent during the recent deluge.  Gone now is the leak via the mount on the forward starboard shower hatch.  Gone now is the leak from the handles to the stern locker hatches, the starboard one in particular being, I believe, the root cause of the bilge alarms last weekend.  Last job was to mount the man overboard pole securing it to the horse shoe float.  That way, if someone goes overboard we can throw it in the water.  The swimmer can see the flag/pole and find the float.  Those left aboard can see the flag/pole and find the swimmer.

In the evening was a pot luck dinner for the fleet of cruisers stuck in Opua.  We ended up sat at a table with the Imagines and Callypsos joined later by John from Passages.  All good company.  We left quite late.

So.  The bloody weather.

The model forecasts available yesterday provided no inspiration at all.  The huge high pressure system well to the east of us seemed immovable and creating a traffic jam of systems out our way.  The Delos boys are stir crazy and have a notion to leave today and head east before heading north.  A bold and brave move in my opinion but I can understand the move.

Knowing the models to be in a volatile state demands close attention to how the solutions are evolving.  And this morning I see a glimpse.  Perhaps a chance to leave on Friday.  Low pressure systems are doing the tango south and west of us.  One of them is now looking to take and hold a position just off the west coast on NZ bringing northwesterly winds Friday afternoon followed by westerlies.  If we left then we would get a day and a half of good sailing before encountering a line of high pressure spots with confused and light winds.  This would require careful threading through and maybe a little motoring.  Beyond this we would be into south easterly flows which would put us back into decent sailing conditions.  The final obstacle would be a low pressure system over Tonga way which could cause a combination of opportunities or problems depending on your destination and how it evolves.  My overall synopsis is that its looking good for those heading to New Caledonia, perhaps a good chance for those Fiji bound and a bit chancy for those bound for Tonga.

In about 3 hours we get the next model output.  I’ll shake the cup and read the tea leaves again then.

Category: Callypso, Delos, Imagine, New Zealand, Passages | Here is my comment
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